To quickly recapitulate the press release:
- The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.7%
- Employment increased 94,000 to 138,467
- Hourly earnings rose $0.08 to $17.63
However, average hourly earnings came in quite a bit above expectations (0.46% MOM versus an expected 0.30%). That doesn't bode well for inflation expectations...
Will today's stronger-than-expected employment situation change market expectations of Tuesday's Fed action? I'll update with the information from the Cleveland Fed after the market closes.
UPDATE:
Estimates of a 50 bps reduction in the Fed Funds Rate declined using either December of January options. Expectations of a 25 bps cut now stand near 60% and 70% for December and January options, respectively (in each case the remainder represents the probability of a 50 bps cut).
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